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Prediction for CME (2022-12-04T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-12-04T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/22636/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen faintly to the East in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A. The exact source is not clear, however one potential source of this CME is a filament eruption seen near N28E25 just NE of a large coronal hole starting around 2022-12-03T23:55Z, best seen in SDO/AIA 304 and 193. There is some deflection seen in SDO/AIA 094 to the SE of the eruption.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-12-07T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 06:09
Radial velocity (km/s): 633 
Longitude (deg): -44
Latitude (deg): -8
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes:
East directed CME, possible associated with filament lift off visible in H-alpha imagery from 3/2357UT. Model is low confidence as it indicates a glancing blow partially due to parker spiral effects.

Lead Time: 51.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2022-12-04T23:05Z

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